Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger
American Economic Review: Insights
vol. 6,
no. 1, March 2024
(pp. 137-53)
Abstract
Conflict undermines development, while adverse economic shocks, in turn, can increase conflict risk. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could attenuate conflict risk by raising poor households' opportunity costs. However, cash transfers may also trigger looting, and expanding government programs may attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. We study the net effect across these forces based on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program and georeferenced conflict events. Cash transfers did not yield greater pacification but—if anything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events (by 0.63 percentage points), substantially driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups.Citation
Premand, Patrick, and Dominic Rohner. 2024. "Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger." American Economic Review: Insights, 6 (1): 137-53. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20230069Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- H53 National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- I38 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
- O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements