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  4. April 2012
  5. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

  • Timothy Besley
  • Hannes Mueller
American Economic Review
vol. 102, no. 2, April 2012
(pp. 810–33)
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Abstract

This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes. (JEL D74, R23, R31)

Citation

Besley, Timothy, and Hannes Mueller. 2012. "Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland." American Economic Review, 102 (2): 810–33. DOI: 10.1257/aer.102.2.810

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
  • R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
  • R31 Housing Supply and Markets