American Economic Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France
American Economic Review
vol. 108,
no. 6, June 2018
(pp. 1322–63)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
This paper provides the first estimate of the effect of door-to-door canvassing on actual electoral outcomes, via a countrywide experiment embedded in Francois Hollande's campaign in the 2012 French presidential election. While existing experiments randomized door-to-door visits at the individual level, the scale of this campaign (five million doors knocked) enabled randomization by precinct, the level at which vote shares are recorded administratively. Visits did not affect turnout, but increased Hollande's vote share in the first round and accounted for one-fourth of his victory margin in the second. Visits' impact persisted in later elections, suggesting a lasting persuasion effect.Citation
Pons, Vincent. 2018. "Will a Five-Minute Discussion Change Your Mind? A Countrywide Experiment on Voter Choice in France." American Economic Review, 108 (6): 1322–63. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20160524Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- C93 Field Experiments
- D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D70 Analysis of Collective Decision-Making: General
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness