American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 13,
no. 2, April 2021
(pp. 444–86)
(Complimentary)
Abstract
Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.Citation
Desmet, Klaus, Robert E. Kopp, Scott A. Kulp, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, and Benjamin H. Strauss. 2021. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13 (2): 444–86. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180366Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- F01 Global Outlook
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming
- Q56 Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
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