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  3. American Economic Review
  4. March 2005
  5. Bond Risk Premia

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Bond Risk Premia

  • John H. Cochrane
  • Monika Piazzesi
American Economic Review
vol. 95, no. 1, March 2005
(pp. 138–160)
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Abstract

We study time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of one-year excess returns on initial forward rates. We find that a single factor, a single tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates, predicts excess returns on one- to five-year maturity bonds with R2 up to 0.44. The return-forecasting factor is countercyclical and forecasts stock returns. An important component of the return-forecasting factor is unrelated to the level, slope, and curvature movements described by most term structure models. We document that measurement errors do not affect our central results.

Citation

Cochrane, John, H., and Monika Piazzesi. 2005. "Bond Risk Premia." American Economic Review, 95 (1): 138–160. DOI: 10.1257/0002828053828581

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
  • E47 Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
  • G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates