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  4. September 2022
  5. Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions

  • David Arnold
  • Will Dobbie
  • Peter Hull
American Economic Review
vol. 112, no. 9, September 2022
(pp. 2992–3038)
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Abstract

We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure disparate impact, regardless of its source, in the context of bail decisions. We show that omitted variables bias in pretrial release rate comparisons can be purged by using the quasi-random assignment of judges to estimate average pretrial misconduct risk by race. We find that two-thirds of the release rate disparity between White and Black defendants in New York City is due to the disparate impact of release decisions. We then develop a hierarchical marginal treatment effect model to study the drivers of disparate impact, finding evidence of both racial bias and statistical discrimination.

Citation

Arnold, David, Will Dobbie, and Peter Hull. 2022. "Measuring Racial Discrimination in Bail Decisions." American Economic Review, 112 (9): 2992–3038. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20201653

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • J15 Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
  • K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law