American Economic Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond
American Economic Review
vol. 90,
no. 4, September 2000
(pp. 806–828)
Abstract
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime, with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.Citation
Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond." American Economic Review, 90 (4): 806–828. DOI: 10.1257/aer.90.4.806JEL Classification
- O41 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
- J11 Demographic Trends and Forecasts; General Migration
- O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development