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  3. American Economic Review
  4. May 2016
  5. Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation

  • David Anthoff
  • Francisco Estrada
  • Richard S. J. Tol
American Economic Review
vol. 106, no. 5, May 2016
(pp. 602–06)
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Abstract

Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming.

Citation

Anthoff, David, Francisco Estrada, and Richard S. J. Tol. 2016. "Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation." American Economic Review, 106 (5): 602–06. DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161102

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming