American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics
ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)
Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
vol. 16,
no. 4, October 2024
(pp. 144–60)
Abstract
We provide first evidence that variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely held perception in the United Kingdom that South Asian households store gold jewelry at home. Price movements on the international market for gold exogenously affect the expected gains from burgling these households. Using a neighborhood-level panel on crime and difference-in-differences, we find that burglaries in South Asian neighborhoods are more sensitive to variations in the gold price than other neighborhoods in the same municipality. We conduct various tests on neighborhood and individual data to eliminate alternative explanations.Citation
Braakmann, Nils, Arnaud Chevalier, and Tanya Wilson. 2024. "Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 16 (4): 144–60. DOI: 10.1257/app.20220585Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D91 Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
- J15 Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
- K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
- R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
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