American Economic Journal:
Applied Economics
ISSN 1945-7782 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7790 (Online)
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
vol. 3,
no. 4, October 2011
(pp. 215–27)
Abstract
Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t — 1 and t — 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t — 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)Citation
Ciccone, Antonio. 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 3 (4): 215–27. DOI: 10.1257/app.3.4.215Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- O11 Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- O47 Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
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