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  4. December 2011
  5. Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review

Journal of Economic Literature

ISSN 0022-0515 (Print) | ISSN 2328-8175 (Online)

Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review

  • Renée Fry
  • Adrian Pagan
Journal of Economic Literature
vol. 49, no. 4, December 2011
(pp. 938–60)
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Abstract

The paper provides a review of the estimation of structural vector autoregressions with sign restrictions. It is shown how sign restrictions solve the parametric identification problem present in structural systems but leaves the model identification problem unresolved. A market and a macro model are used to illustrate these points. Suggestions have been made on how to find a unique model. These are reviewed. An analysis is provided of whether one can recover the true impulse responses and what difficulties might arise when one wishes to use the impulse responses found with sign restrictions. (JEL C32, C51, E12)

Citation

Fry, Renée, and Adrian Pagan. 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review." Journal of Economic Literature, 49 (4): 938–60. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.4.938

JEL Classification

  • C32 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
  • C51 Model Construction and Estimation
  • E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian