American Economic Journal:
Macroeconomics
ISSN 1945-7707 (Print) | ISSN 1945-7715 (Online)
Delayed Overshooting: The Case for Information Rigidities
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
vol. 16,
no. 3, July 2024
(pp. 310–42)
Abstract
We provide evidence that the delayed overshooting puzzle reflects a slow adjustment of exchange rate expectations to monetary policy shocks rather than a failure of uncovered interest parity. Consistent with this evidence, we put forward a New Keynesian model in which uncovered interest parity holds, but there are information rigidities: investors do not observe monetary policy shocks but learn rationally from unanticipated shifts in monetary policy about the state of the economy. We estimate the model and find it can account for the joint responses of the spot exchange rate, forward exchange rates, and excess currency returns to monetary policy shocks.Citation
Müller, Gernot J., Martin Wolf, and Thomas Hettig. 2024. "Delayed Overshooting: The Case for Information Rigidities." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 16 (3): 310–42. DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210212Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
- E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 Monetary Policy
- F31 Foreign Exchange
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