AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 114,
May 2024
(pp. 80–83)
Abstract
This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period 1400–1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context that suffered extensive cooling. The results show that temperature changes have little effect on conflict if they are isolated events but that consecutive periods of cooling are associated with increased conflict. This is consistent with the conventional wisdom that societies and economies are able to adapt to a certain amount of environmental change. But if climate change is prolonged, then the disruptions they cause can cumulate and lead to political instability.Citation
Iyigun, Murat, Joris Mueller, and Nancy Qian. 2024. "The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 114: 80–83. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20241058Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
- N40 Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: General, International, or Comparative
- N50 Economic History: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries: General, International, or Comparative
- Q54 Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming