American Economic Journal:
Economic Policy
ISSN 1945-7731 (Print) | ISSN 1945-774X (Online)
Does the Individual Mandate Affect Insurance Coverage? Evidence from Tax Returns
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
vol. 13,
no. 2, May 2021
(pp. 378–407)
Abstract
We estimate the effect of the ACA's individual mandate on insurance coverage using regression discontinuity and regression kink designs with tax return data. We have four key results. First, the actual penalty paid per uninsured month is less than half the statutory amount. Second, nonetheless, we find visually clear and statistically significant responses to both extensive margin exposure to the mandate and to marginal increases in the mandate penalty. Third, we find substantial heterogeneity in who responds; men are especially responsive. Fourth, our estimates imply fairly small quantitative responses to the individual mandate, especially in the Health Insurance Exchanges.Citation
Lurie, Ithai Z., Daniel W. Sacks, and Bradley Heim. 2021. "Does the Individual Mandate Affect Insurance Coverage? Evidence from Tax Returns." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 13 (2): 378–407. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180619Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- G22 Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
- H24 Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies; includes inheritance and gift taxes
- H51 National Government Expenditures and Health
- I13 Health Insurance, Public and Private
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
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