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Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, Independence Ballroom II
Hosted By:
Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
Surveys with retrospective weather and ecological data to provide estimates of the infant
mortality burden of the tropical climate since 1980. We leverage insights from public health and
agronomy to separately parameterize variation in ecological conditions conducive to malaria and
in growing conditions impacting agricultural yields. We demonstrate that our approach allows
for plausibly separate identification of the endogenous agricultural and malarial channels of
infant mortality, including evidence on substantial infant mortality due to in-utero scarring. Our
large sample size and long sample window allow us to provide a novel estimate of the global
infant death toll due to malaria and malnutrition, demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in
changes in mortality risks across countries over time, and project future infant mortality effects
of climate change in the tropics.
The paper is 40 pages long but includes a lengthy appendix of 46 pages.
production is nonlinear in both temperature and level of development. We exploit exogenous
variation in intensity of Scandinavian winters, as proxied by the Luterbacher et al (2002)
paleoclimate reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to examine the influence of
seasonal climate variability on annual GDP growth and levels using four centuries of time series
data from Sweden. We find strong evidence that bad winters had negative effects on economic
production in Sweden, and in particular that the nature of this relationship changed with
development: during industrialization, Sweden underwent a transition from ‘level’ effects, where
climate variability was a direct determinant of average income per person in a given year, to
‘growth’ effects, where it reduced growth in improving living standards but did not decrease
overall production per person. Our findings support the view that climate variability was a
determinant of economic outcomes in Northern European historical development, with cold
being a binding constraint, and in particular that the development process can change the nature
of climate variability's relationship to production over time.
Climate Change in Developing Countries
Paper Session
Friday, Jan. 5, 2018 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM
- Chair: Solomon Hsiang, University of California-Berkeley
Decoupling Agricultural and Malarial Channels of Climate-driven Infant Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract
We combine data on over 350,000 geocoded births from the Demographic and HealthSurveys with retrospective weather and ecological data to provide estimates of the infant
mortality burden of the tropical climate since 1980. We leverage insights from public health and
agronomy to separately parameterize variation in ecological conditions conducive to malaria and
in growing conditions impacting agricultural yields. We demonstrate that our approach allows
for plausibly separate identification of the endogenous agricultural and malarial channels of
infant mortality, including evidence on substantial infant mortality due to in-utero scarring. Our
large sample size and long sample window allow us to provide a novel estimate of the global
infant death toll due to malaria and malnutrition, demonstrate substantial heterogeneity in
changes in mortality risks across countries over time, and project future infant mortality effects
of climate change in the tropics.
Mortality, Temperature and Public Health Provision: Evidence From Mexico
Abstract
We examine the impact of temperature on mortality across income groups in Mexico using individual death records (1998-2010) and Census data. Random variations in temperature are responsible for 8% of deaths in Mexico (45,000 deaths every year). However, 99% of these weather-related deaths are induced by cold (32°C). Moreover, temperatures only kill people in the bottom half of the income distribution. We show that the Seguro Popular, a universal healthcare policy progressively rolled out since 2004, reduced cold-related mortality among eligible people by about 13%.The paper is 40 pages long but includes a lengthy appendix of 46 pages.
Sweden’s Great Escape: Industrialization and the Changing Productivity Costs of Winters
Abstract
A growing literature suggests that the relationship between climate variability and economicproduction is nonlinear in both temperature and level of development. We exploit exogenous
variation in intensity of Scandinavian winters, as proxied by the Luterbacher et al (2002)
paleoclimate reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to examine the influence of
seasonal climate variability on annual GDP growth and levels using four centuries of time series
data from Sweden. We find strong evidence that bad winters had negative effects on economic
production in Sweden, and in particular that the nature of this relationship changed with
development: during industrialization, Sweden underwent a transition from ‘level’ effects, where
climate variability was a direct determinant of average income per person in a given year, to
‘growth’ effects, where it reduced growth in improving living standards but did not decrease
overall production per person. Our findings support the view that climate variability was a
determinant of economic outcomes in Northern European historical development, with cold
being a binding constraint, and in particular that the development process can change the nature
of climate variability's relationship to production over time.
Discussant(s)
Matthew Neidell
,
Columbia University
Marshall Burke
,
Stanford University
Anant Sudarashan
,
University of Chicago
Achyuta Adhvaryu
,
University of Michigan
JEL Classifications
- Q5 - Environmental Economics