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Atlanta Marriott Marquis, A602
Hosted By:
American Economic Association
The Impact of Chinese Trade: The Good, The Bad and the Apocryphal
Paper Session
Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM
- Chair: Robert Feenstra, University of California-Davis
The Impact of Chinese Trade: The Good, The Bad and the Apocryphal
Abstract
We study the effects of China’s growing importance in global trade on U.S. employment dynamics during the quarter century from 1990-2015. Using U.S. Census microdata we decompose employment growth into job creation and destruction at births, deaths and continuing establishments within local labor markets. First, we confirm the main findings of a negative impact on manufacturing in Autor et al. (2013) for the 1990s and early 2000s. But, we also find strong evidence of positive employment growth and readjustment towards services and non-manufacturing sectors in more recent years. Second, a large share of the manufacturing job losses comes from establishments exiting from manufacturing. But remarkably, the shift toward non-manufacturing jobs is heavily driven by manufacturing plants switching into non-manufacturing activities, explaining the drop in manufacturing and simultaneous rise in non-manufacturing employment. Third, we document a large increase in labor market turbulence in response to the China shock, with job reallocation rates surging in response to Chinese import penetration as local labor markets transform and adjust.When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men
Abstract
We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children’s living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings of young adult males. Consistent with Becker’s model of household specialization, shocks to male’s relative earnings reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with prominent sociological accounts, these shocks heighten male idleness and premature mortality, and raise the share of mothers who are unwed and the share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.Magnification of the 'China Shock' Through the United States Housing Market
Abstract
We re-examine the findings of Autor, Dorn, and Hanson (American Economic Review, 2013), on the impact of Chinese import penetration on U.S. local employment while taking into account the concurrent housing boom and subsequent bust. We find that fluctuations the local housing market amplified the impact of import penetration for China. Regions that experienced greater import competition also had a smaller rise or greater fall in housing price, with the associated impact on employment in the construction industry. The responses of total employment, unemployment, or not-in-the-labor force to import exposure would have been significantly smaller if housing prices had not responded endogenously. Our analysis builds on the research by Charles, Hurst, and Notowidigdo (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2016) on the ‘masking’ effect of the housing boom, but we find that the housing market magnified rather than masked the impact of Chinese competition.JEL Classifications
- J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
- F6 - Economic Impacts of Globalization