Transportation Infrastructure in Developing Contexts
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021 12:15 PM - 2:15 PM (EST)
- Chair: Christopher Severen, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
In Harm's Way: Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities
Abstract
Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify and sea levels rise. This paper considers whether large infrastructure investments should continue to favour coastal areas. I use a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework and detailed georeferenced data from Vietnam to examine this issue and find evidence that coastal favouritism has significant costs. Road investments concentrated in coastal regions between 2000 and 2010 had positive returns but would have been outperformed by allocations concentrated further inland even in the absence of sea level rise. Future inundation renders the status quo significantly less efficient. Under a central sea level rise scenario, welfare gains 72% higher could have been achieved by a foresighted allocation avoiding the most vulnerable regions. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamic effects of environmental change in deciding where to allocate infrastructure today.Infrastructure and Sustainable Development: Evidence from Lahore, Pakistan
Abstract
In the developing world, private vehicle ownership is growing rapidly, increasing mobility but increasing congestion and pollution. To address these challenges, hundreds of cities in developing countries have built mass transit systems in recent years. Yet most research on urban transport has focused on developed countries. We collect microdata to study the impacts of a transit line in Lahore, Pakistan, using as a comparison group areas that are similar at baseline and slated for future transit routes. We make four contributions. First, we quantify the impact of transit on commuting: access to the new transit line reduced both the time and cost of commuting, and increased public transport use in treated areas by 30%. Second, we examine the patterns of use of transit. At baseline, public modes were primarily used by low-income, low-educated commuters; we find that mass transit benefited low- and middle-income commuters, and they report higher willingness to pay. This implies that transit can be made more financially sustainable through better targeting subsidies. Third, we test for responses in other markets. We find that the real estate prices did not change overall, but decrease in the center relative to the periphery. We also see a quantity response in the land market: transit stops increased nearby building cover. This elastic supply response allows transit to increase public transport accessibility on two margins: first, by directly connecting areas of existing activity, and second, by concentrating economic activity near stops. Fourth, we examine externalities averted due to riders switching to transit. We find a reduction in travel time on private modes, suggesting a reduction in congestion. We also find evidence of a reduction in particulate matter air pollution observable in satellite data.Modal Choice, Income, and Congestion in Mexico City
Abstract
Mexico City has invested heavily in public transit in recent decades in hopes of combating increased congestion, lowering air pollution, and providing mobility. Nonetheless, private automobile use has grown and congestion has become worse. We analyze of the effects of the three subway and six bus rapid transit (BRT) lines built between 1994 and 2017 in Mexico City on travel behavior and congestion by combining three spatially explicit waves of travel diary surveys. The data include the origin, destination, travel time, and mode for all trips for each person in a household. We use historical, planned routes to aid identification. Increased proximity to subway and BRT increase transit use and decrease auto use, but effects are larger for BRT. We find evidence of an exposure effect whereby access to a new technology (BRT) drives take up of a similar good (subway), but there is no evidence that the inverse is true. We construct measures of income, and show that while subway use is an inferior good, BRT is adopted across the income spectrum. There are direct spillovers across modes as well: A subway line generally decreases congestion along adjacent routes, while a BRT line increases congestion along adjacent routes. Understanding cross-mode substitution patterns and spillovers plays an important role in policy design.Discussant(s)
Alejandro Molnar
,
World Bank
Gabriel Kreindler
,
Harvard University
Maisy Wong
,
University of Pennsylvania
Nick Tsivanidis
,
University of California-Berkeley
JEL Classifications
- R1 - General Regional Economics
- O1 - Economic Development