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  5. Impact of COVID-19 Information and Policies on Risk Perceptions, Preventive Behaviors and Pro-social Behavior
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Impact of COVID-19 Information and Policies on Risk Perceptions, Preventive Behaviors and Pro-social Behavior

Paper Session

Sunday, Jan. 3, 2021 10:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EST)

Hosted By: International Health Economics Association
  • Chair: David Bishai, Johns Hopkins University

Perceived Costs and Benefits of COVID-19 Social Distancing Measures and Compliance Behaviors: Evidence from Subjective Expectations

Gabriella Conti
,
University College London
Pamela Giustinelli
,
Bocconi University

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic is confronting experts, policy-makers, and citizens with many dimensions of (deep) uncertainty and difficult choices. The adoption, strictness, and expected duration of social distancing measures vary greatly across (and within) countries. Citizens, in turn, exhibit different degrees of compliance. Hence, understanding the perceived costs and benefits of social distancing is of fundamental importance. We study these issues by leveraging recent advances in survey design and econometric analysis of probabilistic expectations. We survey a representative sample of 1,000 individuals in the United Kingdom (under lockdown since March 23) regarding their perceived costs and benefits from complying with the social distancing measures implemented - including subjective probabilities of contracting Coronavirus, being hospitalized or fined, becoming unemployed or socially isolated. Respondents’ subjective probabilities are elicited on a numerical scale of percent chance, randomizing the traditional point expectations format and a novel interval format. Our preliminary results show that the responses have the expected patterns. For example, the perceived probability of contracting coronavirus decreases with the degree of compliance; conversely, the respondents believe that under stricter compliance their personal relationships are more likely to worsen, and they are more likely to become depressed. We also find significant uncertainty around these probabilities. By combining these data with respondents’ compliance behaviors (current and expected) and personal characteristics, we quantify the trade-offs different individuals face. We develop and estimate a model of compliance behavior which quantifies the monetary compensation required to be socially isolated-providing key information to policymakers.

Health and Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis in South Africa and Brazil: Exploring Experiences, Perceptions and Policy Preferences

Mylene Lagarde
,
London School of Economics
Irini Papanicolas
,
London School of Economics
Nicholas Stacey
,
University of the Witwatersrand and London School of Economics

Abstract

The growing COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented health, as well as economic crisis. Following the public health strategies adopted elsewhere, many governments in low- and middle income countries (LMICs) have introduced various levels of “lockdown” to reduce the number of new infections. While these measures can reduce transmission and ‘flatten the curve’ of new cases to protect fragile health systems, they can come at a great economic cost, especially for the more fragile populations. Voices have emerged against lockdowns, claiming that the price to pay is too high. In this project, we use two large online surveys in Brazil and South Africa, two large countries similar in their economic inequalities but different in their policy responses. We explore people’s experiences of the economic and health effects impact of the crisis, elicit beliefs about perceived health and economic risks, as well as perceived benefits and risks associated with different policy responses. Using a survey experiment where respondents are randomized to receiving different messages, we will also test the impact of information on people’s risk perceptions and policy preferences.

Battling the Infodemics: Health Communication Effectiveness During COVID-19

Iryna Sabat
,
Nova School of Business and Economics
Nirosha Elsem Varghese
,
Bocconi University
Sebastian Neuman-Böhme
,
Erasmus University
Pedro Pita Barros
,
Nova School of Business and Economics
Werner Brouwer
,
Erasmus University
Job van Exel
,
Erasmus University Rotterdam
Jonas Schreyögg
,
University of Hamburg
Tom Stargardt
,
University of Hamburg

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in many parts of the world has triggered serious threats to public health. During this period of crisis, the World Health Organization (WHO) reminded all countries and communities that the spread of this virus could be significantly slowed through the implementation of robust containment and control measures. In light of this, the role of public health bodies in communicating the right message and in the right form to the public seems crucial.
In our study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of communication strategies used by international and national public health authorities to inform the public on COVID-19 risks and prevention. We conducted a survey experiment on nationally representative samples of adults from seven European countries (N=7500) to test the efficacy of public health messages in a form of prevention information provision emphasizing either individual or societal benefit of adherence to such measures. The study seeks to investigate how people’s risk perceptions and behaviors change subject to the preventive information provision as compared to the control group.
The findings of this research will be relevant for policymakers and public health professionals in the development of effective communication strategies during disease outbreaks.

Nudging for Lockdown: Behavioural Insights from an Online Experiment

Thierry Blayac
,
University of Montpelier
Dimitri Dubois
,
University of Montpelier
Sebastien Duchene
,
University of Montpelier
Phu Nguyen Van
,
University of Strasbourg
Ismael Rafai
,
University of Montpelier
Bruno Ventelou
,
University of Marseille
Marc Willinger
,
University of Montpelier

Abstract

A web-based survey -made in April/May 2020 among a representative sample of the French population- combined several incentivized experimental economics' tasks that allowed to precisely measure various behavioural dimensions: risk and time preferences, cooperativeness, trustfulness and pro-sociability (based on SV0). Adherence to barrier gesture and to confinement are documented in the same survey. We also tested, based on RCT design, a social-norm nudge aiming at supporting the confinement device. In this presentation, we are focusing on the nudge-experiment. The effectiveness of the nudge is challenged for the overall sample and for selected subpopulations. The behavioural economic metrics potentially explanatory of behaviours are put in competition in order to identify the one(s) that are most strongly correlated with a positive outcome for the nudge policy. One of the main question is the role of pro-sociability in the magnitude of the impact of the social-norm nudge. This knowledge about the psychological conditions for a nudge to be effective is new. This is a prerequisite to better target communication about future confinement devices.
Discussant(s)
Sue Horton
,
University of Waterloo
Ellen Moscoe
,
University of Pennsylvania
Matthew Quaife
,
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Leontine Goldzahl
,
EDHEC Business School
JEL Classifications
  • I1 - Health
  • A1 - General Economics