Saving Lives and the Economy: The Role of Fiscal Policy in the COVID-19 Recession
Abstract
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic many countries had intense debates over howto combine the necessary social distancing and health measures along the economic response.
This study takes a step forward in this direction by estimating the impact of the government
responses on the economic performance for a group of countries around the world in 2020.
Gathering information from the OECD weekly tracker of economic activity, The Oxford
COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and Google Mobility, we built a comprehensive
dataset for 45 countries along 2020. Through the estimation of two-way fixed effect regressions,
our results suggest that fiscal stimuli were very significant in mitigating the recession. The
potential short-term negative impact on GDP, resulting from the necessary social distance and
restrictions on production, could be more than offset by an active fiscal policy and a commitment
by public managers to health policies. In particular, the fiscal effort measure, which includes
expenditures aimed at preserving family income and providing relief to companies, is the only
variable that, regardless of the specification used in the model, has a positive and significant
effect for the GDP projections variation. The results indicate that increases of 1% in public
spending in relation to GDP promoted an increase in the weekly OECD economic activity index
of between 1.9% and 2.1% in relation to its initial value.