Asset Pricing Implications of Institutional Portfolios
Paper Session
Friday, Jan. 6, 2023 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)
- Chair: Motohiro Yogo, Princeton University
Global Volatility and Firm-Level Capital Flows
Abstract
We study the impact of global equity return volatility on equity portfolio flows using a sample of over 40,000 institutional investors from 40 countries. We find that institutional investors tend to reduce exposure to stocks in their portfolios in times of high global uncertainty; retail local investors, in turn, are net buyers. The effect is economically stronger for foreign institutions than it is for domestic institutions and it is present in a sample of firms in both developed and emerging markets. The quantitative analysis of the results indicates that most estimates of discretionary investor trading based on aggregate firm-level data and ignoring rich investor-firm-level heterogeneities are significantly biased downwards, driven by various unmodeled effects, including heterogeneous selection of investors into stocks, time-varying differences in stock sensitivities to global shocks, or time-varying investor inflows and redemptions. To isolate the economic mechanism driving investor flows, we build a general equilibrium portfolio choice model with endogenous learning about asset payoffs. In line with the model’s predictions, we show that foreign investors tend to rebalance their portfolios from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks when global volatility is high. These results suggest that aggregate global portfolio flows are not driven merely by panics and elevated risk aversion but rather they reflect incentives consistent with the learning model of informed investors. Finally, our results indicate that the information-driven rebalancing predicts an increase in stock return volatility of small-cap stocks and a reduction therein for large-cap stocks.What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
Abstract
We document new patterns in investment behavior using a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019. We show that there is substantial heterogeneity in asset allocations across plans, which is not explained by differences in available investment options. To understand observed investment behavior, we use a revealed preference approach that allows us to recover heterogeneity in investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. We demonstrate how exogenous variation in mutual fund expense ratios can nonparametrically identify investors' expectations and preferences based on their portfolio choices. Our estimates indicate that differences in expectations play a first-order role in explaining portfolios. Further, we show that investors appear to form expectations based on local sources of information such as county-level GDP growth and employer past performance. Overall, our findings are consistent with a model in which heterogeneity in investor expectations reflects idiosyncratic experiences and local environments.Raising Bond Capital in Segmented Markets
Abstract
The difference between corporate bond yields at issuance and in secondary markets, the ``issuance premium'', spikes in bad times, increasing firms' costs of capital. Leveraging new bond-level data, I estimate a model of primary markets with imperfectly elastic investors and endogenous firms' supply of bonds that explains the impact of issuance premium on bond issuance. Using high-frequency variation in bond supply as an instrument, I find that investors are more sensitive to issuance premiums than the remainder of credit spreads. As issuance premiums rise in bad times, a more price-elastic primary market supports bond volumes.JEL Classifications
- G12 - Equities; Fixed Income Securities
- G23 - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors