War and Recovery in Ukraine
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)
- Chair: Roger Myerson, University of Chicago
War, Collateral Damage, and Firm Outcomes
Abstract
One cost of war is the disruption of financial relationships that firms rely upon to grow and survive. In this paper, we build upon our previous work studying these relationships using monthly loan-borrower data combined with firm-level financial statements in Ukraine. Our analysis first examines the extent to which bank lending has declined by month in 2022. Using location information combined with data on conflict and damage enables us to disentangle direct and indirect effects of the war. We then turn to an analysis of the employment dynamics and survival of the firms affected by the financial disruptions. The results will have implications for the degree to which post-war reconstruction efforts will need to look beyond the specific regions where conflict has been most intense.Impacts of 2022 Russian Military Invasion on Food Supplies from Ukraine
Abstract
The unfolding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is expected to have a far-reaching crack-down effect on global food security and Ukraine’s economic growth. Over the last 30 years Ukraine has emerged into an increasingly important global supplier of grains and vegetable oil, with a capacity to continue closing its productivity gap and delivering even more food to the global market. This trend has been terminated by an unprovoked Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The price of the continued war is already immense for Ukraine, including for its agriculture. Total estimated agricultural war damages and losses for Ukraine reached already US$ 40.9 billion, almost a quarter of the sector has been destroyed and destructions are only mounting; farmers experience a glaring shortage of liquidity and capital for current harvesting and planting works; this year harvest projections are 30-50% lower than the last one and further agricultural outlook look even worse. In the current tight global market conditions and outlook, the capacity to replace the expected missing exports from Ukraine in the world are very limited. In other worlds but by no means exaggerated, every ton of grains from Ukraine will count this and next season!A Blueprint for the Reconstruction of Ukraine
Abstract
The scale of destruction in Ukraine is already staggering. This publication builds on prior experiences with reconstruction following both wars and natural disasters to outline some principles for the future reconstruction of Ukraine. Efforts should include putting the country on the path to EU accession; establishing a stand-alone EU-authorised agency with autonomy to coordinate and manage aid and reconstruction programmes; recognising that Ukraine must own its reconstruction; encouraging inflows of foreign capital and technology transfers; a focus on grants rather than loans; and rebuilding around the principle of a zero-carbon future.Discussant(s)
Iikka Korhonen
,
Bank of Finland
Oleksiy Kryvtsov
,
Bank of Canada
Sergiy Zorya
,
World Bank
Roger Myerson
,
University of Chicago
JEL Classifications
- O1 - Economic Development
- R1 - General Regional Economics