Asset Pricing: Household Finance
Paper Session
Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM (CST)
- Chair: Abhiroop Mukherjee, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Abstract
We survey retail investors at an online bank to study how beliefs about the autocorrelation ofaggregate stock returns shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data.
Individuals’ beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to market
movements. We inform half of our respondents that, historically, the autocorrelation of returns
was close to zero, which persistently changes their beliefs. Among those who initially believe
in mean reversion, treated respondents buy significantly less equity during the Covid-19 crash
months later. Our results provide causal evidence on the drivers of disagreement and trade in
asset markets.
The Dynamics of Stock Market Participation
Abstract
We document novel facts on the exit and reentry margins of stock market participation by retail investors. Using detailed administrative data containing wealth information for every Norwegian resident from 1993 to 2018, we find that many households leave the stock market within just 2 years after entry. Such behavior is more prominent for low income, wealth, and education groups. We also show that the longer households participate for, the less likely they are to exit. In terms of the reentry margin, over 35% of exiters subsequently return to the stock market, often just a year later. A workhorse portfolio choice model requires sizable per-period participation costs to produce such patterns. We propose a theory of experience effects, whereby agents form beliefs over future stock returns based on their realized returns. This model can explain the short-term dynamics in stock market participation without requiring high costs.Discussant(s)
James Choi
,
Yale University
Andreas Fuster
,
EPFL, Swiss Finance Institute, and CEPR
Lu Liu
,
University of Pennsylvania
JEL Classifications
- G1 - Asset Markets and Pricing