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Sorting and Returns in Post-Secondary Education

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 5, 2024 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)

Convention Center, 221C
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Joseph G. Altonji, Yale University

Changes in the College Mobility Pipeline Since 1900

Zach Bleemer
,
Princeton University
Sarah Quincy
,
Vanderbilt University

Abstract

The observational wage return to college has relatively declined for lower-income college graduates over the past 100 years, signaling a potential weakening of higher education's contribution to economic mobility in the U.S. We investigate this phenomenon by bringing together administrative student, faculty, and curriculum records spanning the 20th century. In contrast to the rising returns to college, university educational activities have changed relatively little over time. Newly-linked administrative and survey data on measured academic aptitude do not suggest that changing selection patterns into college-going explain the observed relative decline. While changes in institution selection and major-specific returns both play important roles, we find striking changes in the latter since the 1930s. Lower-income students have gone from over- to under-represented in high-return college majors like engineering, meaningfully limiting American universities' mobility potential.

Trends in the Gender Gap among College Graduates: The Role of College Major and Graduate Field

Joseph G. Altonji
,
Yale University
John Eric Humphries
,
Yale University
Yagmur Yuksel
,
Zelus Analytics
Ling Zhong
,
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

Abstract

Over the last several decades, the gender gap in earnings has decreased but not fully closed. Early convergence was partially driven by the closing of the educational attainment gap. Yet, large gender gaps still exist among highly educated workers. This paper studies the gender gap among college educated workers born between 1934 and 1984, focusing on the differential contribution of undergraduate and graduate degree composition and returns. Using rich data from the NSF on college graduates and their labor market outcomes, we decompose the gender wage gap across birth cohorts into (a) the average wage gap within undergraduate and graduate degree field combinations, and (b) differences in the composition of undergraduate and graduate degrees. We find that the decline in within-degree gaps played the larger role in convergence through the 1960s birth cohort but has stagnated since, while degree compositions has continued to converge through the youngest cohorts. Graduate degree attainment, irrespective of field, plays the most notable role in gender convergence through the 1970s and 1980s birth cohorts as women’s rates have continued to surpass men’s.

Complementarities in College and High School Investments

John Eric Humphries
,
Yale University
Juanna Joensen
,
University of Chicago
Gregory Veramendi
,
Royal Holloway

Abstract

How do gender differences in abilities and education choices emerge? How much of the gender wage gap is explained by these differences? To answer these questions we first uncover the process by which gender differences in multidimensional abilities emerge at the end of compulsory schooling. This embodies how actual and perceived performance are affected by the learning environment - parents, peers, and teachers in 3rd through 9th grade. Second, we analyze gender differences in skill specialization choices: electives during the last years of compulsory schooling, high school track, and college major. Third, we quantify gender differences in sorting on and returns to multidimensional abilities. Fourth, we perform counterfactual policies to assess how much the gender wage gap would change if there were no gender differences in (i) returns to abilities, (ii) sorting into skill specialization at each education level, (iii) abilities, and (iv) how the learning environment affects investments.

College Admission Mechanisms and the Opportunity Cost of Time

Olivier De Groote
,
Toulouse School of Economics
Anais Fabre
,
Toulouse School of Economics
Margaux Luflade
,
University of Pennsylvania
Arnaud Maurel
,
Duke University

Abstract

College admission platforms aim at achieving a balance between avoiding congestion and allowing for ex-post flexibility in students' matches. The latter is crucial as the existence of off-platform options implies that some students will drop out of the platform in favor of their outside option, freeing up seats in on-platform programs. Sequential assignment procedures introduce such flexibility, by creating a dynamic trade-off for students: they can choose to delay their enrollment decision to receive a better offer later, at the cost of waiting before knowing their final admission outcome. We quantify this trade-off and its distributional consequences in a setting in which waiting costs can be heterogeneous across socio-economic groups. To do so, we use administrative data on rank-ordered lists and waiting decisions from the French college admission system to estimate a dynamic model of application decisions. We find that waiting costs are a key determinant of the timing of students' acceptance decisions and of their final assignment. Nevertheless, we find substantial, but unequal, welfare gains from using a multi-round system
JEL Classifications
  • J3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
  • I2 - Education and Research Institutions