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Fertility and Demographic Transitions

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 5, 2024 12:30 PM - 2:15 PM (CST)

Grand Hyatt, Seguin B
Hosted By: Cliometric Society
  • Chair: Tuan-Hwee Sng, National University of Singapore

Revolutionary Transition: Inheritance Change and Fertility Decline

Victor Gay
,
Toulouse School of Economics
Paula Gobbi
,
Free University of Brussels and CEPR
Marc Goni
,
University of Bergen and CEPR

Abstract

We test Le Play's (1875) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France’s early fertility decline. In 1793, a series of inheritance reforms abolished local inheritance practices, imposing equal partition of assets among all children. We develop a theoretical framework that predicts a decline in fertility following these reforms because of indivisibility constraints in parents' assets. We test this hypothesis by combining a newly created map of pre-Revolution local inheritance practices together with demographic data from the Henry database and from crowdsourced geneaologies in Geni.com. We provide difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity estimates based on comparing cohorts of fertile age and cohorts too old to be fertile in 1793 between municipalities where the reforms altered and did not alter existing inheritance practices. We find that the 1793 inheritance reforms reduced completed fertility by half to one child, closed the pre-reform fertility gap between different inheritance regions, and sharply accelerated France’s early fertility transition.

Life-Cycle Effects of Comprehensive Sex Education

Volha Lazuka
,
University of Southern Denmark
Annika Elwert
,
Lund University

Abstract

Sex education can impact pupils’ sexual activity and convey the social norms regarding family formation and responsibility, which can have significant consequences to their future. To investigate the life-cycle effects of social norm transmission, this study draws on the introduction of comprehensive sex education in the curriculum of Swedish primary schools during the 1940s to the 1950s. Inspired by social-democratic values, sex education during this period taught students about abstinence, rational family planning choices, and the importance of taking social responsibility for their personal decisions. The study applies a state-of-the-art estimator of the difference-in-differences method to various outcomes of men and women throughout the life cycle. The results show that the reform affected most intended outcomes for men and women, ultimately decreasing gender inequality in earnings. The effects of the reform also extended to the succeeding generation of girls. Both generations created a critical mass that altered social norms in favor of collective engagement and democracy. The findings suggest that social norms, internalized through school-based sex education, persistently affect people’s outcomes in significant ways.

Revisiting Skinner: Counting Counties in Song China

Tuan-Hwee Sng
,
National University of Singapore

Abstract

TBA

Discussant(s)
Volha Lazuka
,
University of Southern Denmark
Victor Gay
,
Toulouse School of Economics
Melanie Meng Xue
,
London School of Economics
JEL Classifications
  • N3 - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
  • J1 - Demographic Economics