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Law and Order

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 5, 2024 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (CST)

Convention Center, 224
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Mark Hoekstra, Baylor University

Perceptions of Police Bias and the Location of Minority-Owned Establishments

Joaquin A. Urrego
,
University of California-Berkeley

Abstract

Perceptions of police bias have enduring detrimental effects on attitudes even after evidence that police bias has diminished. Individuals might avoid certain areas and change their consumption patterns. Similarly, workers will adapt their preferences for location, and less desirable places will require higher wages. These effects influence the profitability of minority-owned small firms, especially if they locate in areas where police is perceived as biased. That impacts the equilibrium location of minority-owned establishments. Using data for police stops in New York City, I find that areas with low minority arrest rates back in 2012 had lower minority shares of small establishments in 2019. Small firms are also more likely to exit the market if they operate in neighborhoods with low arrest rates and higher rates of unjustified police use-of-force for minorities. The estimated effects are larger when the sample is restricted to predominantly minority neighborhoods and retail and personal services firms. These different sample designs support the idea that police bias perceptions impact local demand, reducing profits and driving minority-owned firms out of business

The Causal Effect of Pretrial Detention: Evidence from Large-Scale Misdemeanor Bail Reform

Songman Kang
,
Hanyang University
Brandon Garrett
,
Duke University
Sandra Guerra Thompson
,
University of Houston

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of misdemeanor bail reforms in Harris County, Texas, on affected defendants' subsequent case disposition and repeat offense outcomes. Our regression discontinuity analysis, based on administrative data from the county's criminal justice system, shows that the reforms significantly increased the probability of prompt pretrial release among misdemeanor defendants and influenced other important case outcomes, while having little effects on their recidivism and the overall criminal risk in the county. These findings suggest that misdemeanor bail reforms focusing on presumptive pretrial release, rather than ability to pay money bail, can accomplish fairness without adverse public safety consequences.

Shots Fired: Crime and Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-profile Acts of Police Violence

Jesse Bruhn
,
Brown University
Desmond Ang
,
Harvard University, Kennedy School School of Governemnt
Panka Bencsik
,
Vanderbilt University
Ellora Derenoncourt
,
Princeton University

Abstract

How do high-profile acts of police brutality affect public trust and cooperation with law enforcement? To
investigate this question, we develop a new measure of civilian crime reporting that isolates changes in community engagement with police from underlying changes in crime: the ratio of police-related 911 calls to gunshots detected by ShotSpotter technology. Examining detailed data from eight major American cities, we show a sharp drop in both the call-to-shot ratio and 911 call volume immediately after the police murder of George Floyd in May 2020. Notably, reporting rates decreased significantly in both non-white and white neighborhoods across the country. These effects persist for several months, and we find little evidence that they were reversed by the conviction of Floyd’s murderer. Together, the results illustrate how acts of police violence may destroy a key input into effective law enforcement and public safety: civilian engagement and reporting.

Criminal Justice Involvement and Well-Being in Old Age

Michael Mueller-Smith
,
University of Michigan
Jennifer L. Doleac
,
Texas A&M
Jonathan Eggleston
,
U.S. Census
William G. Gale
,
Brookings Institution
Briana Sullivan
,
U.S. Census

Abstract

This paper uses data from the Criminal Justice Administrative Records Systems linked with survey and administrative data sources from the U.S. Census Bureau to provide the first evidence on the looming retirement crisis stemming from the aging generations of Americans who have been increasingly impacted by criminal justice policies like mass incarceration. First, we measure the share of current retirees with criminal records, and provide projections of how these rates among retiring cohorts will increase through 2050. We find that approximately 10% of men at age 62 have faced a felony criminal charge, and this will grow by 70% over the next two decades, peaking among cohorts retiring around 2040. Second, we characterize the living circumstances of those with criminal histories approaching retirement. In spite of almost a decade of criminal desistance on average, this population exhibits serious economic vulnerability, higher disability rates, and greater detachment from kinship networks, factors that put these individuals at risk in retirement. Current data indicate a growing reliance on safety net programs such as the Supplemental Security Income program, for which eligibility does not depend on work history.

Are Juries Racially Discriminatory? Evidence from the Race-Blind Charging of Grand Jury Defendants with and without Racially Distinctive Names

Mark Hoekstra
,
Baylor University
Suhyeon Oh
,
Texas A&M University
Meradee Tangvatcharapong
,
Hitotsubashi University

Abstract

To what extent are the large racial disparities in criminal justice caused by racial discrimination? We test for racial bias using over a quarter million felony cases from Texas in which grand juries decided whether or not the case should be prosecuted. We perform three tests of racial bias. Each exploits the fact that grand juries can only infer race rather than directly observe it, and that the distribution of "convictability" is similar for Black defendants with Black versus White names. All three approaches indicate an absence of racial bias. First, we show that conditional on defendant and case characteristics, there is little difference in the likelihood that juries push forward, or "true bill", Black defendants with distinctively Black names compared to Black defendants with White names. Similarly, the traditional outcome-based test of racial bias indicates that among the marginal Black defendants who were true-billed, identifiably-Black defendants were convicted at similar rates to Black defendants with White names. For the third approach, we first estimate disparate impact---defined as whether juries treat Black defendants differently from White defendants with the same underlying "convictability"---by exploiting the quasi-random assignment of cases to grand juries to purge omitted variable bias. Results indicate there is a similar disparate impact against Black defendants with White names compared to Black defendants with Black names, which indicates the absence of statistical and taste-based discrimination. Collectively, these findings indicate that juries did not engage in racial bias.
JEL Classifications
  • K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior