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Trade

Paper Session

Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Yosemite C
Hosted By: African Finance and Economics Association
  • Chair: Gbadebo Odularu, President, African Finance and Economics Association, Howard University

An Investigation of the Impact of Intra- and Extra-African Trade on Manufacturing Output: A panel data analysis

Zelealem Yiheyis
,
Clark Atlanta University
Jacob Musila
,
Athabasca University

Abstract

A trend of deindustrialization, as represented by the declining share of manufacturing output in GDP, has been a recent phenomenon in several African economies. During the same period, trade openness through bilateral, regional, and multilateral trade arrangements increased. Stylized facts observed in much of the continent on trade openness and market integration, on the one hand, and manufacturing activity, on the other hand, beg the question whether the two phenomena are related. Given the paucity of empirical evidence on the issue, this study seeks to investigate whether cross-border trade flows influenced the pace of manufacturing activity in Africa. More specifically, we attempt to estimate the impact of intraregional and multiregional trade openness on manufacturing output. The study specifies an econometric model of manufacturing production and estimates it using the ARDL method on data drawn from 42 African countries over the period 1995-2020. The estimates suggest that intra-African merchandise trade openness has a positive and statistically significant long run impact on the level of manufacturing output. In contrast, the effect of extra-African trade openness on manufacturing is found to be unfavorable and dominates the positive effect of intra-African trade, causing the impact of the total (i.e., multiregional) trade openness to be negative. Our findings justify the merit of distinguishing between intra- and extra-African trade to characterize the effect of cross-border trade on manufacturing activity and highlight the importance of augmenting the intensity and scope of market integration or intra-African trade in promoting industrialization on the continent.

A Comparative Analysis of Economic Diversification and Complexity in African Countries Versus Other Global South Regions: Assessing the Significance of Export Diversification and Economic Complexity

Christian Nsiah
,
Baldwin Wallace University
Bichaka Fayissa
,
Middle Tennessee State University
Herman Sahni
,
Baldwin Wallace University

Abstract

This research paper investigates the influence of economic complexity and export diversity on growth in the Global South. Our study posits that concealed systemic interactions arise from societal challenges such as growth, development, technological change, income inequality, spatial disparities, and resilience. We uncover positive effects on economic growth by scrutinizing the role of economic complexity and export diversity. However, distinct economic and export diversity thresholds exist in each region to realize these benefits. Notably, African countries demonstrate a lower threshold compared to other regions, implying that even marginal improvements in complexity and diversity can lead to substantial economic gains. Policymakers should address specific productivity constraints in key sectors to harness growth potential, particularly in regions with lower economic complexity and diversity. Our analysis utilizes data from the Global South spanning the period 1995-2022, employing Dynamic Panel Threshold, Dynamic GMM, and Panel Quantile Regression methodologies.

Aid, Laws and Change: The Effect of Gender-Mainstreamed Aid on Gender Differentiated Economic Laws

Bedassa Tadesse
,
University of Minnesota-Duluth
Bichaka Fayissa
,
Middle Tennessee State University
Elias Shukralla
,
Siena College

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between gender-related aid and legal frameworks governing women's economic opportunities (Gender-Differentiated economic laws). Using data from 116 countries (2009-2022), we analyze how significant (SGRA) and principal (PGRA) gender-related aid influence the Women, Business, and Law Index (WBL), which measures women's access to employment, credit, and entrepreneurship. Our results from panel and quantile fixed-effects models estimation approaches demonstrate that SGRA and PGRA positively impact WBL scores, with SGRA showing consistent improvements across WBL components. PGRA substantially affects marriage, parenthood, and mobility regulations while demonstrating more modest impacts on workplace conditions and entrepreneurship measures. Our observations underscore the complexity of addressing gender inequality and the necessity of targeted, multifaceted approaches to overcome legal restrictions, entrenched social norms, and economic barriers. Our research offers valuable insights for policymakers and donors on the transformative potential of gender-mainstreamed aid initiatives in fostering a more equitable world.

The Labor Market Consequences of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)

Colin Cannonier
,
Belmont University

Abstract

Since 2000, the United States government engaged in one of the more important initiatives — The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) — toward Sub Saharan Africa countries. The AGOA provides non-reciprocal duty-free access to goods exported from eligible countries. We exploit variation in eligibility between countries and the variation in the implementation of the policy generated by timing of eligibility. Using country-level data over a 40-year period within a difference-in-differences analysis, we estimate the labor market consequences of the AGOA policy. Our results suggest that the policy has decreased the share of workers in agriculture while increasing the share of workers engaged in industrial activities. These findings are consistent with item 9.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Consistent with these findings, the policy also increased the proportion of workers engaged in wage labor. The results are consistent for both male and female workers. While the policy has led to increases in the proportion of wage labor as well as those in industry-related activities, it has no impact on labor force participation, employment ratio or the unemployment rate. Policy action designed to engage a greater proportion of the population can propel the AGOA to further beyond its stated goals.

A Profile of Essential Indigenous Models for Entrepreneurial Success

Ishmael Iwara
,
North-West University
Victor Ojakorotu
,
Northwest-West University

Abstract

Given the pivotal role that successful businesses play in mitigating unemployment, bridging inequality and income gaps, and alleviating poverty, the escalating incidence of Small, Medium, and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs) facing failure holds profound implications for the global economy. This theoretical discourse amalgamates indigenous entrepreneurial best practices, yielding a comprehensive understanding of the critical imperatives for SMME sustainability and success. Consequently, it offers valuable insights for business stakeholders. The findings emphasize the necessity of adopting a multifaceted approach that integrates successful models’ best practices. Such integration informs policy formulation and strategic planning for both established and aspiring entrepreneurs. Policymakers, educators, and business practitioners alike should recognize the significance of this research in fostering a resilient entrepreneurial ecosystem capable of sustaining economic growth and addressing socio-economic disparities.

Differential Financial Access and Entrepreneurial Breakthrough in Developing Nations: A Case of South African Rural Small Businesses

Yiseyon S. Hosu
,
Walter Sisulu University

Abstract

Securing finance is critical for all enterprises, and there is a wealth of literature discussing factors that restrict such access, particularly for small business owners. However, current literature often overlooks the importance of understanding which factors are paramount to different business categories. This study aimed to profile the aspects influencing financial aid among smallholder farmers and subsistence businesses. Data collected from the Eastern Cape province of South Africa were analyzed using latent class analysis. This statistical method identifies distinct groups of individuals based on their responses to a set of categorical variables. Nine dichotomous variables [business location, personal income, business revenue, availability of financial institutions, financial literacy, race, business size, State of my business, and interest rate] concerning finance access were surveyed across 189 participants. Our evidence shows that these factors do not affect all farmers or businesses uniformly. We found these factors pervasive for 38% of the surveyed sample, while they had a low to moderate impact on 39% and 23% of farmers. These findings have significant implications for policy on rural business development, food security, and credit risk profiling by business capital providers.

Discussant(s)
Bedassa Tadesse
,
University of Minnesota-Duluth
Bichaka Fayissa
,
Middle Tennessee State University
Chinonso Etumnu
,
Kentucky State University
Zelealem Yiheyis
,
Clark Atlanta University
Colin Cannonier
,
Belmont University
JEL Classifications
  • F1 - Trade