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Housing Dynamics: Understanding Prices, Instability, and Impacts

Paper Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 10:15 AM - 12:15 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square, Union Square 15 and 16
Hosted By: Society of Government Economists
  • Chair: Dani Sandler, U.S. Census Bureau

When the Levy Breaks: School Levies, Public Goods, and the Housing Market

Gary Cornwall
,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Scott Wentland
,
George Washington University
Jeremy Moulton
,
University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
Beau Sauley
,
Murray State University

Abstract

A common way to increase or maintain levels of school funding across the United States is a tax levy against property values. These levies are usually direct ballot initiatives voted on in local elections, which require a simple majority to pass or renew. In this paper, we exploit the quasi-random assignment in levies that narrowly fail (as compared to those that narrowly pass) to identify the public’s valuation of a discrete change in this public good via price capitalization in the housing market. If a proposed levy renewal fails, for example, a school district would experience a negative shock to revenue, potentially reducing local school quality – a key public good capitalized into the value of local real estate. On the other hand, a levy failure would lower (or reduce the rate of increase in) property taxes, which would generally be capitalized into home prices in the other direction. Given the ambiguity of these directional impacts, we estimate the average effect of a marginal levy failure on home prices using rich microdata from nearly the universe of home transactions across the state of Ohio from 1995 through 2022. Using a difference-in-discontinuity research design, we find a marginal levy failure had an immediate negative capitalization effect (relative to those districts with a levy marginally passing), where price declines are observable within weeks following an election. In light of these findings, we further discuss implications for the Tiebout Hypothesis and residential sorting in response to changing levels of public goods.

The Influence of Foreclosure on Family Outcomes: Moving from Opportunities?

Sharon O'Donnell
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Owen Denoeux
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Dani Sandler
,
U.S. Census Bureau

Abstract

The Housing Crisis of 2006 -2013 and the Great Recession resulted in millions of US mortgaged homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure. This paper extends the work of Molloy and Shan (2013) and examines the move choices of mortgaged homeowners in this period. Our paper uses a specially constructed panel describing households and foreclosure events at the national level from 2008 to 2013. The file consists of survey panel data (2008 SIPP) commingled with foreclosure event data. To describe the local community, we include neighborhood (tract-level) data from the American Community Survey and school quality data at the school district level. Combined, it allows us to observe the events preceding and following the loss of the home due to foreclosure.

Socioeconomics of Eviction

Dani Sandler
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Ashley Erceg
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Nick Gratez
,
Princeton University
Sonya Porter
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Matthew Desmond
,
Princeton University

Abstract

Millions of households are at risk of eviction each year. There is growing evidence that evictions have a negative impact on health and socioeconomic status, but few studies have examined the dynamics between earnings, employment, and eviction filings, and evictions. This paper investigates the relationship between labor supply and eviction proceedings by linking administrative earnings data from the LEHD to eviction court records covering the entire United States. We use a dynamic difference-in-differences model (Callaway & Sant’Anna, 2020) to examine how earnings and employment change preceding and succeeding an eviction filing or an eviction. We explore heterogeneity by geography, race, gender, household composition, and industry, giving the most comprehensive picture of the dynamics between labor supply and evictions in the United States.

The Mortality Gap: Unveiling Mortality Disparities in the HUD Population

David Pritchard
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Thomas Foster
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Ethan Krohn
,
U.S. Census Bureau
Veronica Garrison
,
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

Abstract

Housing instability continues to be a pressing issue affecting millions in the United States. The absence of stable housing has been linked to a cascade of health-related issues, ranging from increased stress and mental health challenges to exacerbated chronic health conditions like respiratory and heart disease. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) aims to assist economically vulnerable populations through programs like public housing, Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers, and other subsidized housing initiatives. This study documents the mortality rates of HUD assisted individuals. We link administrative HUD data on all individuals receiving housing assistance to a variety of administrative and survey data. We find that the mortality rate of HUD assisted individuals has steadily risen in recent years with non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native individuals having the highest rates. Comparing the HUD assisted population to the U.S. population reveals that HUD assisted individuals experience mortality rates that are 10-15% higher (controlling for the different age, sex, and race population structures across HUD and the U.S. populations). We also find that HUD assisted non-Hispanic White and non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native individuals experience much higher mortality relative to their counterparts in the general U.S. population. Our next set of analysis includes comparing the HUD assisted population to low-income renters in the American Community Survey to provide a potentially more similar comparison group. Finally, we investigate how life expectancy varies for those who no longer receive HUD benefits compared to those who continue receiving HUD benefits.

Discussant(s)
Cody Tuttle
,
University of Texas-Austin
Scott Wentland
,
George Washington University
Daniel Tannenbaum
,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Angela Wyse
,
University of Chicago
JEL Classifications
  • R3 - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location
  • I3 - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty