Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council

Position Title/Short Description

Full Text of JOE Listing:

Executive Director
(Chief Economist)
Washington State
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
Salary Range: $170,000 to $233,064 Annually
Opens: July 31, 2023 Location: Tumwater, WA
Closes: August 28, 2023


The Opportunity
The Executive Director is the nonpartisan chief executive officer for the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC), whose purpose is to provide accurate, reliable revenue and economic forecasts to be used by legislators in developing a balanced biennial budget. The Executive Director serves as both the agency director and the state’s chief economist and is responsible for supervising the agency staff of five economists and an office manager.

To fill this unique role, we are seeking a senior-level economist with an in-depth understanding of economic forecasting; ability to understand state government budgeting processes and how economic principles affect our state’s tax structure to produce revenues; and to lead and supervise the development, preparation, monitoring, and coordination of all economic and revenue forecasts for Washington State. We are also seeking a strong communicator who can engage technical and non-technical audiences alike by telling the story of the state’s economic outlook.
This is a nonpartisan position with a three-year employment contract. Annually, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council will conduct a performance evaluation of the Executive Director; with a positive evaluation resulting in extension of the terms of the employment contract by an additional year.

About The Agency
The ERFC was created by the Legislature in 1990 as a new way to approach producing official economic and revenue forecasts for Washington State. The agency is charged with overseeing the preparation and approval of the official state economic and revenue forecasts which are delivered to the Governor and the Legislature on a quarterly basis. In addition, the agency, in conjunction with legislative and executive budget office staff, is responsible for preparing four-year budget outlooks ensuring the Governor’s proposed budget and the budget as passed by the Legislature balance over a four-year period. Beginning in September 2024, the agency will also be responsible for preparing and approving the official state transportation revenue forecasts on a quarterly basis.

For purposes of the economic and operating budget revenue forecasts, and four-year budget outlooks, the ERFC consists of eleven members: the state treasurer, the director of the Office of Financial Management, the director of the Department of Revenue and eight members of the House and Senate fiscal committees. For purposes of the transportation revenue forecasts, the Transportation Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (TERFC) consists of the state treasurer, the director of the Office of Financial Management, the director of the Department of Licensing and four members of the House and Senate transportation committees. The agency serves as staff to both the ERFC and TERFC.

The agency office is located in Tumwater, Washington. Staff are working on a hybrid schedule; Council meetings are expected to be a mix of virtual and in-person meetings.

Responsibilities
• Under the support and direction of the Council, supervise the preparation of all economic and revenue forecasts for Washington State
• Closely monitor current economic and revenue conditions and developments in order to provide policymakers with an early indication of possible deviation from the official forecast
• Oversee, develop, operate and maintain econometric models and conduct comprehensive economic and revenue studies as requested
• Prepare and present findings through written reports and public presentations to diverse audiences including legislative committees, state agencies, professional associations, industry groups and local governments
• Direct all external communications including responding to legislative, agency and media requests
• Prepare monthly basis reports to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council and Workgroup Members, comparing tax collections from all revenue agencies
• Prepare the employment growth forecast
• Provide support to the Pension Funding Council as member or assigning designee

Successful Candidate Profile
We are most interested in candidates who possess the following:
• Minimum educational attainment of a Master’s degree in economics, forecasting, or related field with a PhD preferred
• At least five years professional experience in economic and tax analysis and forecasting, preferably at a state or comparable level
• Two or more years of experience leading teams of professionals
• Expert-level knowledge of macroeconomic modelling and forecasting, economic and tax theory, statistical research methods, revenue forecasting techniques, and public finance
• Extensive experience with the development and oversight of demographic, econometric and simulation-based forecasts of key variables such as state personal income, population, employment, and tax revenues
• Outstanding written and oral communications skills with the ability to communicate with people at all levels and deliver public presentations to diverse audiences
• Proven ability to build and maintain relationships with key stakeholders such as state agencies, the Legislature, businesses, and professional organizations
• An understanding of governance at the state level including the state budgeting process and state tax structure
• Experience working with a board, commission, legislative committee, or other executive committee, and demonstrated ability to work with legislators and other policymakers

Salary Range
The salary range for this position is $14,167 – $19,422 per month, depending on experience and qualifications, although the expected hiring salary will typically be less than the top of the range. In addition to paid leave, a competitive state benefits package is also offered which includes a choice of medical/dental insurance plans, retirement, and life and basic long-term disability insurance. Subject to limitations, including those established in state law, reimbursement may be provided for allowable moving costs.

Application Process
Send a cover letter, resume, and three professional references to Lisa Biscay at LSSHROffice@leg.wa.gov. Applications will be accepted through August 28, 2023. Please be aware that ERFC reserves the right and may exercise the option to make a hiring decision prior to the conclusion of the recruitment process. Candidate evaluation will be ongoing and it will be to the applicant’s advantage to submit materials as soon as possible.

The state of Washington actively supports diversity in the workplace and is an equal opportunity employer. For assistance or alternative formats, please contact Lisa Biscay at (360) 786-7337; e-mail: lsshroffice@leg.wa.gov.