AEA Papers and Proceedings
ISSN 2574-0768 (Print) | ISSN 2574-0776 (Online)
Long-Term Employment Effects from Job Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis? A Comparison to the Great Recession and Its Slow Recovery
AEA Papers and Proceedings
vol. 111,
May 2021
(pp. 481–85)
Abstract
This paper compares predictions for the long-term reductions in the employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio based on estimates of the overall job-loss rate and the long-term effects of job loss with the actual evolution of the EPOP ratio. It took about ten years after the end of the Great Recession for the EPOP ratio to recover from substantial reductions partly implied by job-loss effects. Based on job loss during the COVID-19 crisis through July, the prediction is that 15–37 percent of the reduction of the EPOP ratio in December 2020 is permanent.Citation
von Wachter, Till. 2021. "Long-Term Employment Effects from Job Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis? A Comparison to the Great Recession and Its Slow Recovery." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 111: 481–85. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211091Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- J63 Labor Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
- J64 Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
- E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- G01 Financial Crises
- I12 Health Behavior