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Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market

By John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, Matthew Hendrey, Nathan M. Palmer, and Chun-Yi Yang

American Economic Review, May 2012

Systemic risk must include the housing market, though economists have not generally focused on it. We begin construction of an agent-based model of the housing market with individual data from Washington, DC. Twenty years of success with agent-based mod...

How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers

[Symposium: Income Inequality and Trade]

By Adrian Wood

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1995

This paper argues that the main cause of the deteriorating economic position of unskilled workers in the United States and other developed countries has been expansion of trade with developing countries. In the framework of a Heckscher-Ohlin model, it out...

Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset: Comment

By Michael D. Bauer, Glenn D. Rudebusch, and Jing Cynthia Wu

American Economic Review, January 2014

Term premia implied by maximum likelihood estimates of affine term structure models are misleading because of small-sample bias. We show that accounting for this bias alters the conclusions about the trend, cycle, and macroeconomic determinants of the ...

The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates

[Symposium: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism]

By Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 1995

This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange paritie...

Incentives, Commitments, and Habit Formation in Exercise: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Workers at a Fortune-500 Company

By Heather Royer, Mark Stehr, and Justin Sydnor

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, July 2015

Financial incentives have shown strong positive short-run effects for problematic health behaviors that likely stem from time inconsistency. However, the effects often disappear once incentive programs end. This paper analyzes the results of a large-scale...

Immigration and the Neighborhood

By Albert Saiz and Susan Wachter

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2011

Within metropolitan areas, neighborhoods of growing immigrant settlement are becoming relatively less desirable to natives. We deploy a geographic diffusion model to instrument for the growth of immigrant density in a neighborhood. Our approach deals ex...

Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand

By Ricardo J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

American Economic Review, May 2016

We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a "safety trap" recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads fro...