Optimal Inference for Spot Regressions

By Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, and Yuexuan Ren

American Economic Review, March 2024

Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonpa...

The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected but Not Accounted For

By Christine L. Exley and Kirby Nielsen

American Economic Review, March 2024

We investigate how the gender gap in confidence affects the views that evaluators (e.g., employers) hold about men and women. We find the confidence gap is contagious, causing evaluators to form overly pessimistic beliefs about women. This result arises e...

2024 AEA Poster Videos

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Watch videos from the 2024 AEA Annual Meeting Poster Session.

The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach

By Benjamin F. Jones

American Economic Review, November 2014

This paper reconsiders the traditional approach to human capital measurement in the study of cross-country income differences. Within a broader class of neoclassical human capital aggregators, traditional accounting is found to be a theoretical lower boun...

The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach: Comment

By Francesco Caselli and Antonio Ciccone

American Economic Review, March 2019

Jones (2014) examines development accounting with imperfect substitutability between different types of skills in the production of output. He finds that human capital variation can account for the totality of the variation in income across countries. We ...

The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach: Reply

By Benjamin F. Jones

American Economic Review, March 2019

Human capital differences across countries can appear large or small depending on measurement methods. This Reply clarifies key assumptions and conceptual distinctions across accounting approaches. Accounting-based arguments for small human capital differ...

Independent Media, Propaganda, and Religiosity: Evidence from Poland

By Irena Grosfeld, Etienne Madinier, Seyhun Orcan Sakalli, and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Exploring a drastic change in media landscape in Poland, we show that mainstream media can significantly affect religious participation. After nationalist populist party PiS came to power in 2015, news on state and private independent TV diverged due to...

The Modern Wholesaler: Global Sourcing, Domestic Distribution, and Scale Economies

By Sharat Ganapati

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

Aleksandr Gevorkyan on the Lebanese Diaspora

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What determines how much diaspora members stay financially engaged with their native country?

ASSA Annual Meeting

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Repression and Repertoires

By Stephen Morris and Mehdi Shadmehr

American Economic Review: Insights

We formalize Tilly’s concept of repertoires of collective action and analyze how state repression affects the variety of observed contentious actions. When repression accelerates with higher levels of anti-regime actions (convex repression structure),...

Post-Doctoral Fellow

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Presidential Post-Doctoral Fellow

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Criminal Justice Innovation Post-Doctoral Fellows

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The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States

By Karel Mertens and Morten O. Ravn

American Economic Review, June 2013

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of changes in taxes in the United States. We distinguish between changes in personal and corporate income taxes and develop a new narrative account of federal tax liability changes in these two tax components. We...

The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Comment

By Carsten Jentsch and Kurt G. Lunsford

American Economic Review, July 2019

Mertens and Ravn (2013) estimate impulse response functions (IRFs) from income tax changes in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) by using narrative accounts of tax liability changes as proxy variables. To produce confidence intervals for their IRFs...

The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply

By Karel Mertens and Morten O. Ravn

American Economic Review, July 2019

In this reply to a comment by Jentsch and Lunsford, we show that the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods.

CSMGEP Profile: Ebonya Washington

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U.S. Treasury Auctions: A High Frequency Identification of Supply Shocks

By Maxime Phillot

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to U.S. Treasury announcements between 1998 ...

The Inner Workings of a Hub-and-Spoke Cartel in the Automotive-Fuel Industry

By Daniel Chaves and Marco Duarte

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

We study the inner workings of a hub-and-spoke cartel in the Brazilian automotive-fuel industry. Based on court documents and detailed price and sales data, we discuss how gas station owners (spokes) operating inside the federal capital received help f...