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EconHarmony

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EconHarmony allows prospective individual paper submitters who are members of the AEA to post information about their paper and search for other paper authors who might join them to form a complete session.

The Long-Run Effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act on Women’s Careers and Childbearing: New Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design and U.S. Tax Data

By Martha Bailey, Tanya Byker, Elena Patel, and Shanthi Ramnath

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We use administrative tax data to analyze the cumulative, long-run effects of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) on women’s employment, earnings, and childbearing. A regression-discontinuity design exploits the sharp increase in the week...

A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast

By George W. Evans, Christopher G. Gibbs, and Bruce McGough

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoni...

Trade Disruptions and Reshoring

By Anindya S. Chakrabarti, Kanika Mahajan, and Shekhar Tomar

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

Firms are increasingly concerned about the resilience of their sales and sourcing decisions. Using administrative data, we show that a temporary disruption in trade due to state border closures in India led to a persistent trade collapse within the cou...

Profit Taxation, R&D Spending, and Innovation

By Andreas Lichter, Max Löffler, Ingo E. Isphording, Thu-Van Nguyen, Felix Poege, and Sebastian Siegloch

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We study how profit taxes affect establishments’ R&D activities. Relying on detailed panel data of R&D-active firms in Germany over two decades, we exploit identifying variation induced by more than 10,000 municipal changes in the local business tax ...

Who Bears the Burden of Local Taxes?

By Marius Brülhart, Jayson Danton, Raphaël Parchet, and Jörg Schläpfer

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We study the distributional effects of local taxes and find them to be strikingly progressive. We calibrate a structural model of a multi-municipality labor market with new reduced-form elasticity estimates. Households with children are found to be con...