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  5. Demographic Economics
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Demographic Economics

Lightning Round Session

Friday, Jan. 3, 2025 2:30 PM - 4:30 PM (PST)

Hilton San Francisco Union Square
Hosted By: American Economic Association
  • Chair: Jesse Rothstein, University of California-Berkeley

Balanced Boards, Balanced Wages: When Female Directors Shrink the Gender Wage Gaps

Francois-xavier Ladant
,
Northwestern University and Harvard University
Louise Paul-Delvaux
,
Harvard University

Abstract

Gender board quotas have emerged as a policy of choice to tackle workplace gender inequalities in many countries. Introduced in 2010, the French quota mandates a 40% female representation on the boards of both publicly listed and large private companies by 2017. To assess its impact, we first construct and analyze a dataset on the board composition of all French firms from 2008 to 2021. Over this period, the average share of female board members increased from 11% to 42% for targeted listed firms, but only from 14% to 30% among targeted non-listed firms. Given the partial compliance
observed, we use difference-in-differences and IV strategies using the firms listed in 2009 as a treatment group. We show that a higher female board share leads to a greater likelihood of appointing a female CEO and increases the share of women among top executives and top earners. It also leads to
a significant reduction in gender wage gaps at all levels of the firm’s hierarchy. These improvements in gender equality outcomes are achieved mainly through external hires for top positions, while wage gap reductions benefit both new hires and incumbent employees. Our analysis further identifies factors contributing to the policy’s effectiveness. Post-quota female appointees are found to be more qualified than their pre-quota counterparts and gain access to key board committees. As the share of women
on the board increases, it also becomes more likely that CEO remuneration is linked to gender equity goals. These results underscore that gender quotas can help advance gender equality in the workplace.

Empowering Married Adolescents: An Impact Evaluation in Northern Nigeria

Isabelle Cohen
,
University of Washington
Aisha Bello
,
Centre for Girls' Education
Bilkisu Abba
,
Centre for Girls' Education
Aminu Bello Gurin
,
Centre for Girls' Education
Daniel Perlman
,
OASIS Initiative and University of California-Berkeley

Abstract

Using a randomized experiment, we evaluate the effects of the Safe Spaces for Married Adolescents (MAS) program in 40 communities in northern Nigeria. MAS utilizes safe spaces to create community among married girls, ages 14 to 19, in remote areas of northern Nigeria and provides trainings on topics including reproductive health, financial literacy, and life skills. Complementary activities include visits to local health centers and dialogues involving the participants' husbands. MAS is highly successful, increasing rates of birth spacing by roughly 4x and reducing a respondent's likelihood of current pregnancy by 14.5 percentage points, a roughly 40% decrease. However, we find no evidence of meaningful trade-offs within households; in fact, rates of self-reported intimate partner violence and husband's control over movement significantly decrease. These findings suggest that some of the worst effects of child marriage can be ameliorated by locally tailored interventions, and that there may be slackness in household bargaining functions, leading to the potential for mutually beneficial improvements even for relatively disempowered adolescents.

Gender Disparities in Divorce Laws: Incentivizing Single Women’s Education

Lele Zhao
,
Tulane University

Abstract

Redistributive policies within households, such as property division upon divorce, can affect the marital gains for women and men differently. Despite the extensive literature on the effects of divorce laws and property division rules on married couples’ behaviour, there is little empirical work about how forward-looking single women respond to changes in marital returns. In 2011, China changed the property division upon divorce from an equal to a title-based regime for housing property in certain conditions, leading to some women losing intra-household property ownership. In this paper, I explore how single females choose education as a self-insurance against the expected decrease in the share of the surplus they can extract in the marriage. I leverage geographic and time variation of the expected loss of property rights in marriage in a difference-in-differences framework. Results show education can act as an insurance device that mitigates costs from unwanted divorce. Faced with higher divorce rates, single females invest more in schooling and earn more in the labour market before marriage. Furthermore, higher education causes assortative matching for mates with higher education. Both roles contribute to higher-quality marriages with less divorce probability. This paper is among the first to uncover how gender-specific disparities in marital benefits incentivize higher education attainment among females, which could explain why females gain higher education than boys in China. It also provides insights into the decreasing marriage and fertility rates even under the transformation from one-child to three-child policies.

Intergenerational Effects of Taking Care of the Elderly at Home

Chiara Malavasi
,
University of Mannheim and ZEW Mannheim
Katja Kaufmann
,
University of Bayreuth

Abstract

This paper looks at how long-term care (LTC) arrangements might affect up to three generations. We exploit the quasi-experimental setting provided by a 2015 Dutch reform to public LTC, strengthening the requirements to access residential care and incentivized ageing-in-place. From 2015 onwards, only applicants in need of full-time care have been granted access to public nursing homes. Individuals admitted before 2015 are entitled to stay, even when they do not meet the new, stronger requirements. We exploit this element of the reform in our identification strategy. Using administrative data from Statistics Netherlands on the entire Dutch population, we estimate a difference-in-difference equation comparing elderly with milder disabilities evaluated until 2014 to those in similar health evaluated after 2015. After establishing the reform determined an increase number of individuals obtaining long-term care at home, we look at how their children and grandchildren (second and third generation) has been affected. Notably, most of the third generation sample includes young adults, i.e. individuals above age 20. In 2020, about 14% of informal caregivers in the Netherlands were below age 40 and 6% of them were below age 30 (Backx et al., 2023). As an increasing number of adult grandchildren takes over informal care for their elders, looking at both second and third generation becomes key. Our main focus will be on labour market outcomes. Specifically, we will look at working hours, likelihood of staying employed and wages of second and third generation. Furthermore, we plan to explore if fertility of the third generation has been affected as well. Finally, we will focus on the younger third generation sample, and look at how their grandparents’ care arrangements affects their school performance. Results are theoretically ambiguous and likely depend on which family member, if any, decides to take up the informal caregiver role.

Labor Market Outcomes of Same-Sex Couples in Countries with Legalized Same-Sex Marriage

Honorata Bogusz
,
University of Warsaw
Jan Gromadzki
,
Vienna University of Economics and Business and IZA

Abstract

We study the labor market outcomes of same-sex couples using data from large representative household surveys. We assess the quality of the data on same-sex couples in 18 high- and middle-income countries that have legalized same-sex marriage. In our detailed analysis, we use high-quality data representing more than two-thirds of the world's population with access to same-sex marriage on three continents: Latin America, North America, and Europe. Same-sex couples are less likely to be inactive and they work more hours than different-sex couples, largely due to the differences in the probability of having a child. They also specialize less than different-sex couples. Men in same-sex couples are up to 60 percent more likely to be unemployed than men in different-sex couples. These unemployment gaps cannot be explained by occupational sorting or other observable characteristics. In addition, we analyze selection into parenthood and marriage. Among different-sex couples, parenthood is associated with better education. By contrast, same-sex parents are less likely to have a college degree than their childless counterparts. This negative selection into parenthood among same-sex couples is largely explained by the differences in the nature of parenthood: while parenthood for different-sex couples usually means raising their own children, parenthood for same-sex couples often means acting as guardians of their relatives' biological children. Finally, same-sex couples are significantly less likely to be married compared to different-sex couples but there are no large differences in the educational selection into marriage between different-sex and same-sex couples.

Migration Restrictions and the Migrant-Native Wage Gap: The Role of Wage Setting and Sorting

Ben Zou
,
Purdue University
Naijia Guo
,
Hong Kong University
Li Zhang
,
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Rongjie Zhang
,
Tsinghua University

Abstract

This study examines the factors contributing to the wage gap between migrants and natives, as well as the influence of internal mobility constraints on this gap. Using matched employer-employee panel data from a Chinese metropolis, we estimate a two-way fixed effect wage model and decompose the wage gap into differences in skills, wage setting, and sorting between migrants and natives. The decomposition analysis reveals that, despite migrants having higher skills than natives, they earn lower wages within the same employer and are less likely to be employed by companies offering high wage premiums. These two factors account for a 10 percentage-point wage penalty for migrants with comparative skills. Additionally, we investigate the impact of a policy change that restricted the "hukou" (household registration) quota to understand the mechanisms underlying the firm-specific pay premiums for natives. Following a one-third reduction in hukou quotas, wages of migrants increased relative to those of native workers, particularly in the private sector where significant quota reductions occurred, and among young and high-skilled migrants who have a higher demand for hukou. This effect is mainly driven by an increase in the wage premium paid by employers due to the unavailability of hukou. However, the tightening of the hukou quota exacerbates the misallocation of workers, making high-ability migrants more likely to work in low-productivity public sectors.

Quantification of Gender Preferences and Counterfactual Simulation of Sex-Selective Technology

Yichu Li
,
Binghamton University

Abstract

I formulate and estimate a fertility model based on the preference over gender and number of children. Utilizing a probit-type structure, I estimate the average utility of having a boy or a girl and the cost of having children. The model is identified by the household's decision to have additional children, conditional on the sex composition of the existing offspring. First, I use the model to quantify the degree of gender preference. I find a strong preference for gender variety and a slight preference for boys in the United States. The non-white, non-native, or low-educated households display various levels of boy preference, while the white, native, or highly educated households lean towards girls. As the technology of sex selection develops, with lower costs and higher accuracy, its widespread use in the future seems plausible. The potential demographic effects remain ambiguous due to the lack of exogenous variation in such technology. I next utilize the model to simulate how the prevalence of sex-selective technology could affect the sex ratio and fertility level. I find that a skewed sex ratio is unlikely, primarily because the mixed-gender preference outweighs that for a specific gender, and average households desire more than one child. While most previous literature predicts a decline in fertility, I estimate an increase in births by approximately 1%. This net effect may vary slightly depending on the cost of sex selection and the distribution of its use across different birth parities.

The Gender Wage Gap and Assortative Matching

Hugo Sant'Anna
,
University of Georgia

Abstract

Albeit in the United States and Brazil women are more educated than men, the gender wage gap is still a relevant issue. This study uses Brazilian administrative data and a variation of the AKM model in which workers and firms are reduced to distributional, upper-level, types to show that the gender wage gap has two main components: A pure firm channel, already traditionally measured in AKM settings, and an assortative matching component, until now unfeasible to measure in these settings, which contributes predominantly to wage differences, responsible for about 60 percent of the gap. My findings reveal an underrepresentation of highly skilled female workers in top-paying firms, a trend persistent across all age groups, particularly in prime working years. Therefore, there is a critical misalignment in the labor market, where the potential for high-earning women is not matched by their presence in the highest-paying firms, suggesting a misallocation of female talent that impacts economic efficiency and firm productivity. I argue that addressing the gender wage gap at this point transcends the need for educational parity, and policies that promote the cultivation of inclusive work environments are needed.

The Unintended Consequences of Relaxing Birth Quotas: Theory and Evidence

Zhangfeng Jin
,
Zhejiang University of Technology
Shiyuan Pan
,
Zhejiang University
Zhijie Zheng
,
Beijing Normal University

Abstract

This study examines the impact of easing birth quotas on fertility transition, considering both extensive and intensive margins. Employing an extended Barro-Becker model, we anticipate asymmetric effects on birth rate based on household preferences. Utilizing a distinctive two-child policy in China that allowed eligible couples to have a second child, combined with a difference-in-differences framework, our analysis reveals a notable increase in second-child births following the relaxation of birth quotas. However, this positive outcome is counterbalanced by a discernible reduction in first-child births. The observed decline or postponement in first childbearing is linked, in part, to the rising costs associated with child rearing, aligning with our theoretical predictions. Consequently, our findings advocate for a nuanced policy approach. Instead of universally relaxing or abolishing birth quotas, policymakers should prioritize initiatives that address the financial burdens of child rearing faced by prospective parents. This targeted strategy is posited to more effectively enhance overall fertility rate.

Violence in Mexico, Return Intentions, and the Integration of Mexican Migrants in the U.S.

Reem Zaiour
,
Vanderbilt University

Abstract

This paper studies how violence due to the war on drugs in Mexico affects the social and economic integration of Mexican migrants in the United States. I combine detailed administrative data on Mexican migrants' municipal origins with US Census data on their naturalization, intermarriage, and economic behavior. To instrument for violence in Mexican municipalities, I exploit the pre-war geographic distribution of drug trade organizations within Mexico together with time variation in cocaine supply shocks originating in Colombia. Focusing on migrants who arrived in the US before the war on drugs, I find that violence significantly increases their propensity to naturalize and marry US citizens, particularly naturalized Mexicans. The marriage effects are larger for recent and less educated migrants and are more pronounced in areas where migratory networks are concentrated. However, I find no evidence of significant changes in labor market behavior or human capital accumulation. Overall, these results reflect a decrease in migrants' intentions to return to Mexico. Analysis using the Mexican Census suggests a reduction in return migration flows to municipalities experiencing heightened violence, which supports this mechanism.
JEL Classifications
  • J1 - Demographic Economics