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What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian

American Economic Review, May 2013

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-...

The Case for a New Fiscal Constitution

[Symposium: Bias in the Budget]

By William A. Niskanen

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1992

For the first 140 years of U.S. history, the federal budget was effectively constrained by two fiscal rules: the formal limits within the Constitution on the enumerated spending powers and an informal rule that the government could borrow only during rece...

War, Inflation, and Social Capital

By Sergei Guriev and Nikita Melnikov

American Economic Review, May 2016

We use weekly data from 79 Russian regions to measure the impact of economic shocks and proximity to war in Ukraine on social capital in Russian regions. We proxy social capital by the relative intensity of internet searches for the most salient dimension...