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Convex Supply Curves

By Christoph E. Boehm and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

American Economic Review, December 2022

We provide evidence that industries' supply curves are convex. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a model in which capacity constraints at the firm level generate supply curves that are convex in logs at the industry level. The industry's capacit...

Trading on Sunspots

By Boyan Jovanovic and Viktor Tsyrennikov

American Economic Review, December 2022

In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria, we show that the set of equilibria shrinks if we allow trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot acting as an equilibrium-selection device. When the probability of a low-output outcom...

Learning from Manipulable Signals

By Mehmet Ekmekci, Leandro Gorno, Lucas Maestri, Jian Sun, and Dong Wei

American Economic Review, December 2022

We study a dynamic stopping game between a principal and an agent. The principal gradually learns about the agent's private type from a noisy performance measure that can be manipulated by the agent via a costly and hidden action. We fully characterize th...

Dynamic Amnesty Programs

By Sam Kapon

American Economic Review, December 2022

A regulator faces a stream of agents engaged in crimes with stochastic returns. The regulator designs an amnesty program, committing to a time path of punishments for criminals who report their crimes. In an optimal program, time variation in the returns ...

Using Neural Networks to Predict Microspatial Economic Growth

By Arman Khachiyan, Anthony Thomas, Huye Zhou, Gordon Hanson, Alex Cloninger, Tajana Rosing, and Amit K. Khandelwal

American Economic Review: Insights, December 2022

We apply deep learning to daytime satellite imagery to predict changes in income and population at high spatial resolution in US data. For grid cells with lateral dimensions of 1.2 km and 2.4 km (where the average US county has dimension of 51.9 km), our ...