Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply

By Derek Lemoine

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

Generalizing models of directed technical change, I show that complementarities between innovations and factors of production (here, energy resources) can drive transitions away from a dominant sector. In a calibrated numerical implementation, the economy...

Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations

By Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

Earnings are riskier and more unequal for households born in the 1960s and 1980s than for those born in the 1940s. Despite improvements in financial conditions, younger generations are less likely to be living in their own homes than older generations at ...

A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations

By Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer, and Petr Sedláček

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new hires and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This ...

The Impact of Extending Employment Protection to Agency Workers on Firms

By Alejandro Micco and Pablo Muñoz

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

We study the impact of a reform that extended employment protection to temporary agency workers. Using a difference-in-difference research design, we show that plants more exposed to the regulation experienced a decrease in revenues and total employment, ...

Firms' Precautionary Savings and Employment during a Credit Crisis

By Davide Melcangi

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

Can the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks be large even when a small share of firms is credit constrained? I use UK firm-level accounting data to discipline a heterogeneous-firm model where the interaction between real and financial frictions ...

Adverse Selection Dynamics in Privately Produced Safe Debt Markets

By Nathan Foley-Fisher, Gary Gorton, and Stéphane Verani

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

Privately produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. But in some macro states—here, the onset of the pandemic—it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then agents face adverse select...

Assessing the Stabilizing Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions

By Alexey Gorn and Antonella Trigari

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

We study the stabilizing role of benefit extensions. We develop a tractable quantitative model with heterogeneous agents, search frictions, and nominal rigidities. The model allows for a stabilizing aggregate demand channel and a destabilizing labor marke...

Scarred Consumption

By Ulrike Malmendier and Leslie Sheng Shen

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

We show that prior lifetime experiences can "scar" consumers. Consumers who have lived through times of unemployment exhibit persistent pessimism about their future financial situation and spend significantly less years later, controlling for income, empl...

Monetary Policy When the Phillips Curve Is Quite Flat

By Paul Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, and Franck Portier

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2024

This paper highlights how the presence of a monetary policy cost channel can offer new insights into the relation between monetary policy and inflation when the Phillips curve is quite flat. For instance, we highlight a key condition whereby lax monetary ...

CSMGEP: The Minority Report

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Assistant Professor

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Assistant Professor of Public Policy and Economics (applied micro)

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Expected Returns to Crime and Crime Location

By Nils Braakmann, Arnaud Chevalier, and Tanya Wilson

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

We provide first evidence that temporal variations in the expected returns to crime affect the location of property crime. Our identification strategy relies on the widely-held perception in the UK that households of South Asian descent store gold jewe...

The Carrot and the Stick: Bank Bailouts and the Disciplining Role of Board Appointments

By Christian Mücke, Loriana Pelizzon, Vincenzo Pezone, and Anjan Thakor

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We empirically examine the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) used by the U.S. government to bail out distressed banks and its implications for regulatory policy. We find strong evidence that a feature of the CPP—the government's ability to appoint indepe...

Clean Identification? The Effects of the Clean Air Act on Air Pollution, Exposure Disparities and House Prices

By Lutz Sager and Gregor Singer

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We assess the U.S. Clean Air Act standards for fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅). Using highresolution data,we find that the 2005 regulation reduced PM₂.₅ levels by 0:4μg/m³ over five years, with larger effects in more polluted areas. Standard d...

Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans

By Megan T. Stevenson and Jennifer L. Doleac

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We evaluate the impact of adopting algorithmic risk assessments to inform sentencing decisions. We find that judges changed sentencing practices in response to the risk assessment, but that discretion played a large role in mediating its impact. Judges...

Estimating Hysteresis Effects

By Francesco Furlanetto, Antoine Lepetit, Ørjan Robstad, Juan Rubio-Ramírez, and Pål Ulvedal

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples st...

The Evolution of U.S. Retail Concentration

By Dominic A. Smith and Sergio Ocampo

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Increases in national concentration have been a salient feature of industry dynamics in the U.S. and have contributed to concerns about increasing market power. Yet, local trends may be more informative about market power, particularly in the retail se...

Fair Shares and Selective Attention

By Dianna R. Amasino, Davide D. Pace, and Joël J. van der Weele

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

Attitudes towards fairness and redistribution differ along socio-economic lines. To understand their formation, we conduct a large-scale experiment on attention to merit and luck and the effect of attention on fairness decisions. Randomly advantaged sub...

Recovering the Anchoring of Economic Valuations

By Liang Guo

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics

We revisit the interpretation of the anchoring effect as evidence for nonexisting or arbitrary preferences. A theory of endogenous information acquisition (i.e., deliberation) is developed to rationalize the causal dependence of economic valuations on ar...