Prediction with Misspecified Models

By John Geweke and Gianni Amisano

American Economic Review, May 2012

The assumption that one of a set of prediction models is a literal description of reality formally underlies many formal econometric methods, including Bayesian model averaging and most approaches to model selection. Prediction pooling does not invoke th...

The Role of Agriculture in Development

By Douglas Gollin, Stephen Parente, and Richard Rogerson

American Economic Review, May 2002

Parents' Incomes and Children's Outcomes: A Quasi-experiment Using Transfer Payments from Casino Profits

By Randall K. Q. Akee, William E. Copeland, Gordon Keeler, Adrian Angold, and E. Jane Costello

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2010

We examine the role an exogenous increase in household income, due to a government transfer unrelated to household characteristics, plays in children's long-run outcomes. Children in affected households have higher levels of education in their young ad...

Gary Becker's Impact on Economics and Policy

By Edward P. Lazear

American Economic Review, May 2015

Gary Becker was one of the greatest thinkers of the 20th century. He advanced social science by introducing economic thinking into areas that were thought to be off limits. Because his theory was motivated by his desire to explain the world, his analyses ...

Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence

By Steven J. Davis, R. Jason Faberman, and John C. Haltiwanger

American Economic Review, May 2012

We measure job-filling rates and recruiting intensity per vacancy at the national and industry levels from January 2001 to September 2011 using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Industry-level movements in these variables are at odds w...

The Motherhood Wage Penalty: Which Mothers Pay It and Why?

By Deborah J. Anderson, Melissa Binder, and Kate Krause

American Economic Review, May 2002

Willingness To Pay and Willingness To Accept: How Much Can They Differ? Comment

By Edoh Y. Amiran and Daniel A. Hagen

American Economic Review, March 2003

Intergenerational Occupational Mobility in Great Britain and the United States since 1850: Reply

By Jason Long and Joseph Ferrie

American Economic Review, August 2013

We respond to several criticisms by Avery Guest and Michael Hout (2013) and Yu Xie and Alexandra Killewald (2013) to Jason Long and Joseph Ferrie (2013). We do not dispute Guest and Hout's characterization of the importance of total mobility in addition t...

Trends in Employment and Earnings of Allowed and Rejected Applicants to the Social Security Disability Insurance Program

By Till von Wachter, Jae Song, and Joyce Manchester

American Economic Review, December 2011

Longitudinal administrative data show that rejected male applicants to the Disability Insurance (DI) program who are younger or have low-mortality impairments such as back pain and mental health problems exhibit substantial labor force attachment. While w...

Competition, Risk, and Managerial Incentives

By Michael Raith

American Economic Review, September 2003

Economic and Productivity Growth in Canadian Industries

By Wulong Gu, Frank C. Lee, and Jianmin Tang

American Economic Review, May 2000

Multi-category Competition and Market Power: A Model of Supermarket Pricing

By Øyvind Thomassen, Howard Smith, Stephan Seiler, and Pasquale Schiraldi

American Economic Review, August 2017

In many competitive settings, consumers buy multiple product categories, and some prefer to use a single firm, generating complementary cross-category price effects. To study pricing in supermarkets, an organizational form where these effects are internal...

Consumption and Debt Response to Unanticipated Income Shocks: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Singapore

By Sumit Agarwal and Wenlan Qian

American Economic Review, December 2014

This paper uses a unique panel dataset of consumer financial transactions to study how consumers respond to an exogenous unanticipated income shock. Consumption rose significantly after the fiscal policy announcement: during the ten subsequent months, for...

Time to Retire? The Effect of State Fiscal Policies on Retirement Decisions

By Tami Gurley-Calvez and Brian Hill

American Economic Review, May 2011

Our research addresses the importance of state fiscal policies on the probability of retirement using a panel of individual tax return data. Results indicate that a one percentage point increase in the income or sales tax rate reduces the probability of r...

Modeling Macroeconomies as Open-Ended Dynamic Systems of Interacting Agents

By Blake LeBaron and Leigh Tesfatsion

American Economic Review, May 2008

The Network Structure of International Trade

By Thomas Chaney

American Economic Review, November 2014

Motivated by empirical evidence I uncover on the dynamics of French firms exports, I offer a novel theory of trade frictions. Firms only export into markets where they have a contact. They directly search for new trading partners, but also use their ex...

Tobacco at the Crossroads: The Past and Future of Smoking Regulation in the United States

By Jonathan Gruber

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2001

The past five years have seen a dramatic turn of events against the tobacco industry, raising the question of the appropriate future path for smoking policy in the U.S. This paper discusses the theory and evidence on regulation of smoking. I begin by revi...

Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions

By Axel Börsch-Supan, Klaus Härtl, and Alexander Ludwig

American Economic Review, May 2014

The extent of demographic changes in Europe is much more drastic than in the United States. This paper studies the effects of population aging on the interactions between economic growth and living standards in Europe with labor market and pension reform,...

Policy Watch: Cutting Capital Gains Taxes

By Gerald E. Auten and Joseph J. Cordes

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 1991

From 1922 to 1986, long-term capital gains were taxed at lower rates than other income, generally by allowing a portion of long-term capital gains to be excluded from taxable income. While taxing capital gains at the same rates as other income has been ha...

On Discrimination in Auctions with Endogenous Entry

By Philippe Jehiel and Laurent Lamy

American Economic Review, August 2015

When entry is exogenous, strong buyers should be discriminated against weak buyers to maximize revenues (Myerson 1981). When entry is endogenous so that entrants' expected payoffs do not depend on the proposed mechanism, optimal discrimination takes a com...